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2017 Investment Fortune Telling

2016 has been a crazy year of major price increases and general pandemonium within the Guelph real estate market.

We’ve seen popular student complexes such as 1155 Gordon St jump $40,000 in just three short months, and watched bidding wars take place on properties that would have otherwise sat on the market for weeks, without a single buyer in sight, just a few short years ago.

With the unprecedented rising prices in certain complexes within the Guelph student investment market in such a short period of time, you have to wonder if the other complexes prices will follow suit?

Although no one has a crystal ball, there are some distinct trends between some of these major complexes that have always mirrored what the other complexes are doing. Based on historical analysis, mixed with a little bit of my own general intuition, these are my predictions for 2017’s Student Investment prices:

(2016 prices are approximated)

1155 Gordon St

2016 prices – $405,000

2017 prediction – $425,000

To be honest, I don’t see another $40,000 price increase happening in this complex again in the spring. $400,000 seems awfully high of a price to pay when you can get nearly identical units elsewhere for much, much cheaper. Although this complex generally sets the bar as far as highest priced popular student complexes go, I don’t seem them skyrocketing again in the New Year although I do seem them increasing roughly $20,000 beyond their current price of $405,000.

1055 Gordon St

2016 prices – $340,000

2017 predictions – $390,000

I consider this complex to be 1155 Gordon Street’s “Older Sibling”. It’s basically the same complex, with many of the same layouts, but only a few years older and is actually about a few 100 metres closer to the U of G. Historically prices have been slightly less than 1155 Gordon St, except for in 2014, 2015 and the start of 2016 where sales prices were neck and neck for the most part. 1055 Gordon St was left in the dust at $340,000 when 1155 Gordon street started selling for over $400,000 this past year, but I predict buyers will be looking at 1055’s “Younger Sibling” and adjusting their offers accordingly. Unfortunately no MLS sales have happened at 1055 Gordon St since the 1155 Gordon St units sold for over $400,000 so it’s tough to say exactly where they will land, but for this complex I predict a $50,000 price increase to around $390,000 this coming New Year.

66 Rodgers Rd and 920 Edinburgh Rd

2016 prices – $320,000

2017 prediction – $370,000

I often like to lump these two complexes together considering they are so close and comparable to one another. Historically sales figures between the two complexes have been pretty much bang on, excluding the units at 920 Edinburgh Rd without garages that sell for less. They are nearly a stones-throw apart from one another and with 66 Rodgers Rd being right behind the Hartsland Plaza, in my opinion values have always been way under what they should have been considering the conveniences offered. With all of the prices in the other complexes around these two going up, it would only makes sense that their prices rise as well. 

302 College Ave

2016 prices – $320,000

2017 prediction – $345,000

Prices have stayed below the $300,000 mark for a long time with this complex, but 2016 saw an end to that and threw them up into the $320,000’s. The location is fantastic and there are an abundance of units in this complex keeping the condo fees reasonable (in my opinion), but they are the oldest of these comparable complexes and they usually don’t to see the magnitude of price increases the other complexes do. However, this year I’m predicting these units will be a shoe in for the $345,000 price range once buyers start seeing what the other complexes are selling for.

Roehampton Cres and 151 Clairfields Dr

2016 prices – $320,000

2017 prediction – $400,000

Roehampton and Clairfields are often low on most investors radar. They’re two quiet little complexes in the South end right behind the Zehrs plaza that have been sitting patiently, just waiting for the commercial development land to fill in before prices go crazy. Up until this point, the only real amenity these two complexes had “in their backyard” was the Zehrs and the few other stores around it, but now that a lot of that land has been developed and those buildings are opening up with businesses I think that’s about to change and people are going to realize just how well situated these complexes really are. With the recently sold unit at 151 Clairfields Dr selling for $380,000 just a few weeks ago, I expect prices to continue to rise into the $400,000’s.

124 Gosling Gardens

2016 prices – $340,000

2017 predictions – $370,000

124 Gosling Gardens is another favourite amongst students as it’s also in the South end right behind the Food Basics Plaza. It’s always been priced about $20,000 higher than the Roehampton and Clairfields complexes and I believe it’s because of the amenities it has in its backyard versus these other two complexes situated just on the other side of Gordon. I still predict prices to jump in this complex, just not as high as Roehampton and Clairfields considering all of the new development they have going on right behind them, although with the new addition of the Longo’s coming in right across the road from the Food Basics, I could be eating my words once it’s complete!

As I said, no one really knows what prices are going to do in the New Year and unfortunately the only thing we have to rely on is past data and recent trends. If 2017’s sales price increases are anything like what happened in 2016, I would suggest you prepare yourself to be shocked and amazed with each passing month’s new sales records.

Until next time, Happy Investing!

Kyle

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